BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN+7 DRAFTKINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card in Russia. DraftKings has some strong contests for us to win a great deal of money from this week considering it is a more compact card and begins at 10:15am ET. The most important GPP is a $15 buy and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first location price and that $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 entries that qualify. I will attempt to get my 2nd and 3rd chairs this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers therefore be careful chasing those too hard. I’ll probably stick to the very best GPP this week and throw 100 or so entries at that $25k decoration, and then I will probably take a few shots in the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to receive a good quantity of play into money games.
With that said, let’s get to a few plays I like this week along with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of this week — Roxanne Modafferi — $6,900
I really don’t believe there are really no money locks this week, so I needed to bring up a money strategy I use a lot of the time, which is punting in cash and accepting a reduction. I don’t believe Roxy gets the win here, but she’s just $6.9k and I believe she receives 15-minutes of actions. I like the floor which accompanies this and punting with her cheap cost enables us to fit in more of the higher favorites with our other 5 spots. We do not want 6 wins in cash games, so that I don’t believe we need to even try for this. I enjoy playing money games if I can lock in 25-35 points at a loss from Roxy at her cheap price I’m totally ok with that. I always look for 4 wins in money and above 350-400 DK points. That’s my goal every week. Let everybody else make the mistakes and only shoot for a score that can beat 50% or more of the field.
GPP play of the week — Alistair Overeem — $8,900
This really is an all-in struggle for GPPs in my opinion and I enjoy Overeem as one of my top plays of the week. Oleinik took this fight on short notice so that I would be amazed to see this go all 5 rounds. In addition, I believe Overeem will be too quick for him to get takedowns, and Overeem is levels before him at the striking game. The only shooter Oleinik has of winning on the feet would be by landing a haymaker and knocking Overeem out. Or, get a standing submission. Other than those two results, Overeem will smoke on the toes. In addition, I believe Overeem will work his way back to his toes if he is taken down and the longer Oleinik shoots takedowns the faster he will gas outside. I enjoy the -175 ITD line which is included with Overeem here and I believe he gets a complete in round 2 or 1. That should give us close to 100 DK points if not more, and I want that in a lot of my GPP lineups.
Underdog drama of the week — Rafael Fiziev — $7,700
Fiziev is no more the underdog on the gambling line (-120) but DraftKings salaries don’t change as soon as they are released. We receive Fiziev here for $800 less costly than Mustafaev and he’s preferred to get the win. I was very impressed with what I saw from this kid and I agree with the line movement. I do think he gets the win , but it is the DK value that we want to make certain to get exposure to this weekend. I believe he is a great play cash games with the current price and that I hope to be overweight on him GPPs as well. We must roster underdogs in our lineups and when we could use a favorite as one of these”underdogs” then I am usually on board for that.
Fade of the week — Antonina Shevchenko ($9,300)
Antonina Shevchenko is my fade of the week for her $9.3k price tag. I really do think she has the win here as I said previously, I just don’t see how she’ll pay off that salary without a finish. I don’t see her shooting any takedowns in this match, and I don’t want to rely on her getting knockdown points . So, we’re only going to be receiving 0.5 points per significant attack, and then the 30-point win bonus if she wins a choice. If that is the case, we’d need her to property over 126 sig strikes just to secure more than 10x value. I really don’t see that being true and that I believe she more likely scores 80-85 DK points in a decision win. At her salary, that will not win anybody the large $25k. That is the prize I am shooting for so that is why she is my fade of the week.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight on the card and provide my full DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, then you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link too. I am 69-41 for +237.39u (+$23,739) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

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